The new normal for the electricity market: more automation, more forecasting and more flexibility

Balancing market in the Nordic electricity system was overhauled in March. The balancing of production and consumption is now separately done for each bidding zone, whereas balancing was previously done for the Nordic synchronous area as a whole. There is an increased need for balancing in the Finnish electricity system, and price spikes have become more common.
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The 15-minute market time unit has allowed more real-time balancing, which is reflected in varying balancing needs and more frequent changes in the direction of regulation, that is, the need to increase and decrease power varies.

Maria Joki-Pesola, Head of Balance Service and Balancing Markets at Fingrid, explains that previously, the imbalances in the Finnish electricity system were balanced using Nordic resources for example from Sweden whereas now the balancing is increasingly done using local resources.

“These days, balancing in the Finnish bidding zone is done with Finnish resources, which has increased the volatility of both the market and electricity prices. We have seen high prices, which have significantly increased balance responsible parties’ imbalance costs.”  

Finland has about 70 balance responsible parties who forecast and plan their own balances for each quarter of an hour as accurately as possible.

Minimising imbalances is more important than ever

The market incentivise balance responsible parties to make increasingly accurate forecasts in order to minimise imbalances.

Continuous imbalance management is now increasingly important. Automation, robotics and the development of forecasting models can help market participants to minimise the costs arising from imbalances. It is increasingly important for market parties to proactively offer as much flexible capacity as possible, both on the intraday market and the mFRR and aFRR energy markets.  

Continuous imbalance management is now increasingly important.

“It’s a good idea to try to correct your own imbalances through the market, but you can’t do that if no one is offering flexible capacity. Ensuring sufficient supply in the mFRR and aFRR energy markets under all circumstances will also help to curb the price spikes that determine imbalance prices,” says Joki-Pesola.  

Fingrid is also taking measures that will affect the cost of power imbalances. 

“For example, we’re developing our own forecasting tools and also market rules to make balancing activations more accurate. We’re also analysing the correct relationship between the components that determine the imbalance price and, if necessary, will change the way the imbalance price is formulated.”  

Good news and progress in the right direction

The imbalance price is currently a strong driving force in the market. 

“Positive signs are already visible. Finland’s net imbalances have slowly begun to decrease. Our balance is systematically no longer a surplus, as it was a year ago. We’ll monitor the situation over the winter, and let’s hope that this is a permanent trend,” says Joki-Pesola

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